2026
Cameco SOTP Valuation
Investment Thesis
Cameco is a vertically integrated uranium platform with leverage to nuclear demand growth, utility contracting cycles, and Western supply-chain security. The analysis separates the uranium mining base from Westinghouse to avoid masking different risk profiles inside a single blended multiple.
The investment angle is that a conventional consolidated multiple understates the contribution of Westinghouse and the option value embedded in long-life uranium assets. The model uses a Westinghouse DCF alongside mine-by-mine NAV to triangulate intrinsic value across bear, base, and bull contracting scenarios.
This was the flagship QSMF uranium workstream, presented at the SMIF UK Conference in York and to HSBC investment professionals including the Global Head of Equity Research.
Key Metrics
Valuation Output
Scenario and contribution view
Methodology+
The model separates Westinghouse service revenue, outage cadence, margin expansion, and terminal value assumptions from the mining NAV. The mining model uses asset-level production schedules, realised uranium price assumptions, operating cost curves, sustaining capex, and discount-rate sensitivity.
Scenario work focused on uranium contract pricing, production ramp timing, and long-term nuclear demand assumptions. Outputs were cross-checked against peer trading multiples and public company disclosures.