2025
CrowdStrike DCF Model
Investment Thesis
CrowdStrike is a category leader in cloud-native endpoint security with an expanding platform across identity, cloud workload, SIEM, and managed detection. The model studies whether premium growth and retention can support valuation at a higher discount-rate regime.
The thesis work decomposes revenue into recurring ARR, professional services, and platform expansion so that growth does not rely on a single top-line assumption.
Key Metrics
Valuation Output
Scenario and contribution view
Methodology+
The DCF links customer expansion, module adoption, gross retention, operating leverage, and reinvestment needs into a five-year forecast. WACC was built from CAPM inputs and sensitivity-tested across terminal growth and exit assumptions.
Outputs were designed to show the valuation impact of ARR durability and margin expansion rather than treating SaaS growth as a single static driver.