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2026

UEC Pitch — HSBC

Equity Research · PitchUraniumNAVDCFScenario Analysis

Investment Thesis

Uranium Energy Corp. offers high-beta exposure to uranium price recovery and U.S. strategic supply concerns. The pitch framed UEC as a scenario-led asset story where permitted ISR projects, inventory, and optionality need to be valued explicitly rather than compressed into one trading multiple.

The core question was whether the market was paying too much for optionality or underpricing restart leverage. Bear, base, and bull cases were built around realised uranium prices, ramp timing, and project-level execution risk.

Key Metrics

Enterprise Value$2.8bn
Base NAV$3.1bn
Bull NAV$4.2bn
Bear NAV$2.0bn
Primary MethodNAV + DCF

Valuation Output

Scenario and contribution view

Methodology+

The valuation combined asset-level NAV with DCF overlays for development timing and commodity-price sensitivity. Scenario design focused on the path dependency of uranium contracting, restart assumptions, and financing risk.

The output was formatted as an investment pitch for HSBC investment professionals, prioritising downside protection, catalysts, and debate-ready assumptions.